I spend a lot of time thinking about how things are affected by changes in technology. Obviously, I am not the only one who does this.
Self driving vehicles can be one of the most disruptive technologies we ever seen. If it does come into being, this have the potential to disrupt many industries. It will also affect trillions of dollars.
Here is a quick video detailing some thoughts on this matter.
The point that caught my attention was the statement that autonomous cars would suck $500 billion a year out of the healthcare industry in the United States alone. This industry could have 20 million people a year removed from it.
Considering the impact of automobile accidents is not something most of us really think about. However, when you consider medical, insurance, and property damage, the numbers get enormous. This is not even taking into account the 1.25 million of people who are killed on highways around the world each year.
What is fascinating is that, according to this video, that this could all be a reality by 2035. The presumption here is that the autonomous capability will be reached by 2021. This is far from a guarantee.
Also, if we do get the technology by that date, I have a feeling things will more a great deal quicker than 15 years. The benefits of autonomous vehicles will simply be too much to resist. I would expect governments to quickly outlaw non-autonomous vehicles, at least in heavily populated areas.
Many think that a lot of these technologies are for off in the distance. It is important to note that 10-15 really is not a long time. We just completed the 2010s and it will not be long before we start to realize that the 2020s are flying by.
The mobile phone was able to disrupt society completely and did so in under 7 years. This is how rapidly technological innovations can spread these days. I would expect something like autonomous vehicles to have similar impact.
That said, there are many who doubt that fully autonomous vehicles will ever be created. Level 5 driving technology might be out of reach. Even if that is the case, a Level 4 fleet of vehicles could have similar impact especially in major markets.
Tesla is getting a lot of attention for its claim to be nearing autonomous capabilities. Whomever is able to break the code stands to profit handsomely. This is an enormous market with trillions on line around the world. There are roughly 90 million vehicles sold globally each year, all of them manually driven at this point. A new capability of this nature could mean a replacement rate that is far higher than people anticipate.
This is one example of a technological innovation in one industry (automobile) causing major upheaval in another (healthcare).
The question is how many look at the situation this way?
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