SteemLeo is putting on the
2nd 3rd of their weekly writing competitions and if you didn't already guess it the theme is what are your 2020 predictions for crypto with some suggested talking points. If I have some time this weekend
Bitcoin's Price - 2020 and the Halving
I think Bitcoin's price will slowly start to rise in 2020. I'm not sure if we'll see any forks in 2020 that helped to drive the price up when Bitcoin Cash forked and Bitcoin Segwit was rumored, but the fact that the amount of Bitcoin being produced each day will drop from 1800 to 900 per day
I'll link a video by @nicholasmerten down below that does a great job of explaining why the price will go up during the halving. The TLDR is if you assume that miners are selling all the Bitcoin they mine everyday Bitcoin has to have roughly $13,000,000 in buyers come in and buy just to keep the price steady. If we keep the same buy pressure of $13 million today then the price of Bitcoin will be around $14,000.
While I don't think the price will instantaneously shoot up to $14,000 at the halving because as the price goes up the selling pressure from those that bought at $7k and below will increase, that will eventually slow down allowing the price to start creeping back up again which will generate new buyers, increased fud, and further positive price action over the long term.
The above chart shows a stock-to-flow model of Bitcoin's price. According to Look Into Bitcoin a stock-to-flow model shows
the current stock of a commodity (total amount currently available) against the flow of new production (amount mined that specific year).
The model predicts a price of over $50,000 by the end of next year. I'm going to say that the price will be around $30,000 next year as FUD will just be starting to set in again as the previous high will have been crossed and will likely see an all-time high of $250,000 in Spring of 2021. Just dreaming, please don't take financial advice from a guy who thinks 2+2=5.
Steem in 2020
Steem is in a very interesting place. It is the "first to market" decentralized social media platform that largely gets ignored even though it has the largest market share, in my opinion, in the crypto and decentralized space.
If Steem can capture even just a portion of those who are looking for an alternative to Twitter or YouTube we could see some massive growth next year. It's interesting how quickly people forget about the shadow banning that was going on on Twitter and most recently the bans on crypto accounts on YouTube. If Steem/Steemit could do a better job capturing some of these creators, we'd be in for a massive 2020.
I don't know why Steemit gets so forgotten or ignored. I'm not sure if people still assume bid bots run everything on the platform or it's been abandoned since Dan left, but Steem with DTube and 3Speak are some great alternatives to YouTube and with the release of communities think a Zapl like project could definitely have a lot of success as a Twitter alternative on Steem.
I love to see games like @holybread and @splinterlands get started and continue to thrive on the blockchain. It's nice to see Dapps other than gambling dapps that you're always left wondering when they'll exit scam you out of all your money. I'm hoping games that deliver value and are fun to play are going to be what continues to drive the Steem price up.
I think being a base trading pair will continue to drive the price of Steem higher as more and more people will want to get involved in good communities like @steem.leo and others communities who continue to innovate what a great community should look like and how to help create value for a token.
I think the fundamentals for Steem is strong and will only be growing stronger as 2020 continues. With Steem-Engine working on allowing people to buy crypto with fiat, Splinterlands coming out with a mobile app, Steemit released communities and SMTs and hopefully continual development with 3Speak and other communities within Steem, if we don't at least make it to $0.20 by the end of 2020 I'll be a little sad I'm not going to lie.
I'd like to see Steem communities continue to encourage people to post outside of Steem to continue to get the word out about all the changes that are being made to help spread awareness and hopefully encourage those that haven't checked out Steem yet to join and those that already have an opinion to come back and check out all the changes on the blockchain.
Fundamental Developments in 2020
With the introduction of Gods Unchained, I can't wait to see how gaming on the blockchain continues to develop. I think Splinterlands and Gods Unchained are too great success stories of what can be accomplished with gaming and owning your digital assets and hoping that people smarter then I continue to innovate in the space and find fun and new games in 2020 and beyond.
I'm not a fan of decentralized finance for lending and borrowing. I did a lot of this on sites like BTCjam and Loanbase that are no longer around. These platforms are great in theory as it allows anyone to get a loan and allows anyone to be a lender and get interest rates from 10 - 20%, sometimes more sometimes less, depending on the quality of the borrower. I would say about 60% of my loans defaulted on BTCjam and even with the high interest I was earning on the loans that were paid back I might have been able to break even and probably ended up negative overall.
I do think Defi will help push Eth on the next bull run and will probably start the next alt bull market as more and more stable coins are developed and backed by Eth.
It will be interesting to see how this has an effect on the market because, in effect, this Ethereum is being locked away just like Steem is with Steem Power creating less supply. As more and more Ethereum is locked away it will take less and less demand to drive the price higher. @louisthomas created a great YouTube video down below in why he believes Ethereum will see some of the best returns and Defi, he thinks, will play a large part in that like ICO's did back in 2017 and 2018.
I would like to see more blockchains start to integrate and would love to see the Basic Attention Token group to start allowing Steemit content creators to be tipped natively in BAT on Steemit like you can on Reddit and Twitter. I would also like to see Maker somehow be integrated into Steem so the Steem blockchain can take part in the Defi revolution as well.
Another fundamental development that would be nice to see is a way for blockchains to "rent out space" from other blockchains. For instance if Ethereum started getting clogged with crypto kitties 2.0, how cool would it be to start sending transactions to the Steem blockchain (assuming it had space available) and then using that blockchain to verify the transactions until the congestion died down and the network could once again handle all the transactions. Speed of transactions and transaction costs will continue to be an issue in 2020 which could also help speed up adoption of the lightning network.
Positive Price Action for 2020
I can't imagine prices in the crypto arena to go much lower than they are currently. I think most active projects have hit a bottom and somewhat recovered and are currently in the accumulation phase where they are just moving sideways. I thought Steem was going to break out recently, but it looks like whoever was buying has slowed down and we're once again moving sideways in accumulation.
I don't think this is a bad thing, however, as pretty strong support is being built in this area, and it will be nice to see higher support be built in the next bear market.
Bitcoin even flirted with dipping down into the $3k - $4k region again but quickly bounced back above $7k. I was saying last time that I figured Bitcoin would drop down below the $6k mark as people were still optimistic in the space about everything going to the moon. I feel like I'm reading more and more stories where the people who help from $20k down are finally starting to throw in the towel and sell there Bitcoin.
To me, just like when people were taking out a loan on the house to buy more Bitcoin, it is a sign that the bottom is in and hopefully we'll start to see some slow continued growth from here over the next year.
I would love to see your thoughts and comments below if you agree or disagree and think we're going back to $3k BTC or below.