Belgian Jupiler League Asian Handicap Rankings

in palnet •  10 months ago 

The international break is always a good time to take a step back and have a closer took at some of the statistics and alternate rankings with an eye to continue having an edge on the Asian Betting markets.


Regular Standings Ranking


Ranking vs Asian Handicap

The regular standings might show what the best performing teams are but usually says a little about how under or overrate teams are. Often times teams in the bottom or great to bet on because they consistently manage to beat the handicaps despite not taking points. This is the standing after 10 weeks on the best teams against the Asian closing line...

RankTeamClose ROI(Open ROI)
01Moeskroen+32.85%(+36.70%)
02Zulte-Waregem+29.10%(+36.70%)
03Club Brugge+24.11%(+44.44%)
04Standard+20.90%(+17.80%)
05Charleroi+20.61%(+19.28%)
06Mechelen+16.70%(+16.00%)
07Oostende+4.68%(-1.20%)
08Waasland+0.40%(-4.45%)
09Antwerp-0.56%(+10%)
10Sint-Truiden-4.85%(-17.90%)
11Kortrijk-8.90%(-17.70%)
12AA Gent-12.56%(-9.67%)
13Racing Genk-14.10%(-1.70%)
14Anderlecht-41.15%(-51.70%)
15Eupen-44.70%(-42.80%)
16Cercle Brugge-52.40%(-60.70%)

There is often a thin line between being underrated and just plain luck in these stats after just 10 matches which makes it all more of a tool to go by instead of absolutes. Moeskroen got overrewarded early after which they got more confidence and started playing better. Anderlecht got rather unfortunate early on which totally spiraled out of control making them one of the teams who bettors got totally crushed on.


Ranking vs Over Line

The same thing goes for Over/under teams. It's not because a team has matches with many goals on average that the over is an automatic bet. Everything depends on the line that is available.

RankTeamClose ROI(Open ROI)
01Cercle Brugge+31.35%(+30.05%)
02Antwerp+28.44%(+21.39%)
03Mechelen+21.30%(+21.55%)
04Oostende+19.10%(+15.40%)
05Racing Genk+19.05%(+11.15%)
06Kortrijk+16.60%(+24.10%)
07Charleroi+16.39%(+4.33%)
08AA Gent+8.11%(+8.17%)
09Standard+5.80%(+15.95%)
10Club Brugge-1.11%(-5.33%)
11Waasland-1.90%(-4.50%)
12Zulte-Waregem-5.50%(-5.10%)
13Moeskroen-16.60%(-20.50%)
14Sint-Truiden-25.10%(-17.45%)
15Anderlecht-26.70%(-31.10%)
16Eupen-28.45%(-34.75%)

Cercle, Antwerp, and Mechelen have been the most over team while Eupen, Anderlecht and Sint-Truiden have been the most underish teams so far this season.

Overall Season Stats

These are the overall stats against the Asian handicaps. (green = open line | yellow = closing line). It's remarkable how closing line favorites are performing way worse against closing lines. This pretty much verifies how most people like to just bet the favorite and why it's better to take those early on while waiting to bet underdogs until just before Kick-Off.


Average Shots on Goal

The shots on goas is becoming a more used metric to predict games and I started keeping those myself this season. This is the standing based just on those...

RankTeamShots Goal
01Club Brugge8.7
02AA Gent6.8
03Standard5.9
04Antwerp5.4
05Oostende4.8
06Kortrijk4.7
07Anderlecht4.1
08Racing Genk3.9
09Charleroi3.9
10Zulte-Waregem3.7
11Waasland3.7
12Cercle Brugge3.6
13Moeskroen3.4
14Mechelen3.4
15Eupen3.1
16Sint-Truiden2.9

Average Paper Team ratings

Each match a team gets a rating in the paper, adding those all up getting the average results in this ranking...

RankTeamPaper Score
01Club Brugge6.44
02Antwerp6.33
03Standard6.30
04AA Gent6.22
05Charleroi6.11
06Zulte-Waregem6.10
07Moeskroen6.00
08Kortrijk6.00
09Mechelen5.80
10Racing Genk5.70
11Anderlecht5.50
12Oostende5.42
13Sint-Truiden5.40
14Eupen5.30
15Waasland5.20
16Cercle Brugge4.80

There are a lot more stats when looking at home/away or 1H/2H specific angles and there is a lot more at play than just numbers. All info is basically just puzzling pieces that have to be laid out in the right way to see the true picture which on itself allows finding the bets where odds aren't set correctly. Knowing how much importance to give to certain pieces of the puzzle is what makes profitable sports bettors the way I look at it all.

I might have 1 early bet I'll be taking extra on in BTC and I'm really looking forward for the league to get underway again on Friday...

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